I finished a draft of my paper that was due for Andrew's MLE class. There are lots of loose ends and unfinished business – like the whole fixing the formal model – but it's not horrible, I don't think.

The gist is that strikes are a form of collective action that individuals coördinate on when they believe that their action will be pivotal to bringing about change; and that they observe and interpret imperfect signals about that probability. The empirical part is a count model looking at the number of strikes and strike-days in a given month, with covariates of who's participating and demonstrating. I find that the presence of radicals depresses striking and the presence of students is associated with an increase.

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